How droughts are reshaping European logistics and freight transport
Increasingly frequent droughts and forecast rising temperatures are disrupting freight transport along European inland waterways. As a result, Europe is struggling to find solutions to avoid drastic reductions in transport capacity. The situation could create demand for medium- and heavy-commercial vehicles (MHCVs) as major European logistics operators seek alternatives amid rising costs and capacity constraints.
- How droughts are disrupting European logistics and inland waterway transport
- Supply chain disruption is shifting freight transport to roads as truck demand rises
- Rising costs and a rigid supply chain could limit truck demand
- European logistics planning can help meet evolving freight transport demand
- Don’t plan your commercial vehicle strategies in the dark
The severe droughts and heatwaves that have struck Central and Western Europe in recent years have intensified concerns about the reliability of inland waterway transport and created the potential for increased truck demand. Europe experienced major droughts in 2018 and 2022, but the 2026 crisis was distinguished by five consecutive heatwaves and a wider geographic impact, extending to the UK, Ireland and the Balkans.
These frequent disruptions threaten to become a structural challenge for European logistics rather than isolated emergencies. As water levels fall and freight capacity declines, logistics operators must increasingly turn to road freight transport to keep goods moving, impacting the automotive industry.
How droughts are disrupting European logistics and inland waterway transport
Climate change is reshaping European logistics by disrupting commercial waterways and altering established freight routes. Both the historic crisis of 2022 and the ongoing emergency of 2026 highlight how river disruptions have systemic repercussions on industrial and energy supply chains. According to Eurostat data, freight transport on European Union inland waterways fell sharply by 9.8% in 2022 compared to 2021, representing a net loss of approximately 13 billion tonne-kilometers (tkm). Due to critically low water levels, commercial barges were forced to cut their cargo capacity by as much as 30–40%.
The drought conditions in 2026 are proving even more severe. In August, the Rhine recorded flow rates roughly one-fifth lower than the already critical levels of 2022, and the Vistula in Poland hit historic lows. This effectively halted commercial navigation heading upstream and, on stretches where navigation was not officially suspended, active vessels could carry only 10% to 20% of their usual capacity to avoid running aground.
Projections for 2026 indicate that freight volumes along the entire Rhine corridor will fall by an estimated 12% to 15% compared to the average for non-drought years. On the Romanian and Balkan sections of the Danube, cargo loads had already been forcibly reduced by 40% by the end of August. The transport of agricultural products and dry bulk goods is seeing the sharpest contraction, with drops approaching 20% due to the physical impossibility of moving fully laden vessels.
Supply chain disruption is shifting freight transport to roads as truck demand rises
As declining water levels reduce inland waterway freight capacity, logistics operators must shift more cargo to road and rail networks, creating new challenges for freight transport and potential opportunities for MHCV manufacturers.
The blockage of waterways creates a "bottleneck" that markets struggle to absorb: a single standard 1,500-tonne river barge carries the equivalent of 50–60 tanker trucks. The forced diversion of cargo volumes from river transport to road or rail—modes already operating at capacity—has triggered a European logistics crisis.
To illustrate the scale and volume of this bottleneck, consider a 25% drop in the standard operating capacity of European waterways (equivalent to the roughly 35–40 million tons of cargo historically moved annually in the Rhine basin alone). Absorbing this shortfall would require an additional 4,000 to 5,000 heavy truck trips per day on Western and Central European motorways.
Together, the Netherlands (331 million metric tons) and Germany (171 million metric tons) accounted for 71.9% of all inland waterway traffic in the European Union in 2025. Among other Western European countries, Belgium follows with 156 million metric tons and France with 47 million tons. In Central Europe, Romania leads with 25 million tons in 2025, followed by Serbia with 14.5 million and Hungary with 5.7 million.
River transport accounts for approximately 44% of total freight transport in the Netherlands and 38% in Romania. However, the share of freight transported by road increased substantially in May 2026 compared with May 2025, rising from 40% to 52% in the Netherlands, from 44% to 57% in Germany and from 6% to 22% in Romania. New vehicle registrations have not kept pace with this rising demand for road freight transport, but a consolidated 10% to 15% increase in the demand for road freight transport could drive MHCV sales growth over the coming years.
Mobility Global’s commercial vehicle market data show MHCV sales volumes at a higher-than-normal peak in June 2026 in the major countries affected by declining inland waterway traffic. This trend was most pronounced in Western Europe, although Romania also experienced a sales spike in June 2026 that distinguished it from other Central European markets.
Rising costs and a rigid supply chain could limit truck demand
Despite the increased need for road freight options, several obstacles facing European logistics could prevent rising demand for road freight transport from translating into more MHCV sales.
- Transport infrastructure—such as river ports and main roads—would need to be upgraded to handle road traffic volumes far exceeding current levels.
- The seasonal and transitory nature of these disruptions could discourage operators from expanding their fleets in the most affected areas. Purchasing new trucks requires planning and is not a practical solution for managing short-term emergency situations.
- Chronic driver shortages in Central and Western Europe further limit flexibility, while shifting from barges to diesel trucks would increase emissions.
- The rising costs associated with supply chain disruption also discourage fleet investment. Higher fuel prices linked to the conflict in the Middle East, along with higher inflation and interest rates, add to financial pressures. Reduced river freight transport capacity also results in longer transit times and increased costs, particularly for steel producers. Barge freight transport is typically 30–40% cheaper than truck transport for heavy, low-margin commodities, so disruptions can raise raw material costs and slow vehicle production.
- Lastly, goods transported by barge—largely bulk quantities of coal, iron ore, chemicals and grain—cannot easily be broken down into smaller road-based shipments.
European logistics planning can help meet evolving freight transport demand
Even in the face of these potential obstacles, strategic logistics planning and greater fleet flexibility could help operators adapt to recurring droughts. With inland waterway freight volumes declining since 2018, demand for trucks capable of transporting grain, liquids and bulk raw materials could grow. Anticipating these shifts would help fleet operators plan seasonal truck and trailer capacity and routes more effectively.
Problems related to increased traffic and driver shortages persist, though they can be mitigated through legislative measures and support. Easing Sunday driving restrictions and allowing vehicles weighing up to 44 metric tons on national roads could provide temporary relief, with the potential to become permanent measures. Policymakers are also debating the use of longer vehicles (“Lang-LKW”), including 18-meter configurations (“Lang-LKW” 1) and 25-meter configurations (“Lang-LKW” 2–4) consisting of three-vehicle combinations. However, implementing these solutions would require both legislative action and infrastructure upgrades to accommodate the traffic.
As climate-related disruptions become more frequent, coordinated investments in transport infrastructure, fleet capacity and strategic planning will be essential to strengthening the resilience of European logistics.
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