July 2026 US auto sales cruise into summer at a familiar speed

July 2026 US auto sales

New light vehicle sales in July are expected to maintain pace with the previous three months.

July 2026 US auto sales are projected to reach approximately 1.37 million units, according to Mobility Global. This would represent a 16.5 million seasonally annual adjusted rate (SAAR), matching June and extending the steady sales pace the market has held since March.

For the full year, Mobility Global now forecasts 2026 US auto sales to hit 15.82 million units. This is a decline of over 3% from the 16.38 million units sold in 2025. We have slightly raised our prior 2026 sales view, but the bigger takeaway is the direction: The market is settling rather than growing.

“July US auto demand should hold the pace we’ve seen since March,” said Chris Hopson, principal analyst at Mobility Global. “If this plays out, it would mark five straight months at or above a 16.0 million SAAR. This is the longest stretch in more than five years. Getting meaningfully above this level will be tough for consumers under today’s conditions. However, after the stop-and-go pattern of 2025, the industry will welcome the consistency.”

Battery-electric vehicle (BEV) sales

We expected BEV sales and market share to cool in  the first half of 2026, as both automakers and buyers adjusted to the market after incentive-driven demand.  But fuel prices rising since March have pulled some shoppers back toward  fuel-effic i ent options, including EVs.

BEV share of new sales has improved from the winter chill, but gains remain measured. For July, we expect BEVs to reach about 7% of new-vehicle sales, reflecting limited progress.

A few forces appear to be tempering new BEV momentum even with higher fuel prices:

• OEM adjustments (production slowdowns, inventory, strategy) could be constraining availability.
• Used-EV activity appears to be rising, which can satisfy value-focused demand that might otherwise land in new BEVs.

New BEV launched coming later in 2026 should add additional momentum. Still, the market is weighing a key uncertainty: how high fuel prices go and how long they stay there. That will matter for how quickly BEV demand can build from here.

What next?

The 2026 US auto sales market will continue to contend with affordability pressures and shifting EV policies. Mobility Global will monitor the evolving sales environment as manufacturers and consumers adapt to changing incentive landscapes.

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