October 2026 US auto sales set to maintain softer pace
New light vehicle sales for the month are expected to be up from the year-ago level but maintain a more subdued pace.
October 2026 US auto sales are projected to reach approximately 1.34 million units, according to Mobility Global. This would translate to a sales pace of 15.7 million units (seasonally adjusted annual rate: SAAR), the second consecutive month of cooling demand levels compared to the 16.5 million units the SAAR averaged from June-August 2026.
Still, the 1.34-million-unit volume projection for October would be up 4% from the year-ago level, reflecting continued resilience in sales. Mobility Global projects US auto sales volumes to reach 16.1 million units in 2026, an estimated decline of more than 1% from the 2025 level of 16.38 million units.
“As we begin the final quarter of the calendar year, there’s potential that automakers will look to provide some additional support for consumers as there are some indicators of growing inventory levels,” said Chris Hopson, principal analyst at Mobility Global. “This would be warmly received by new vehicle shoppers who continue to be pressured by high interest rates and slow-to-recede vehicle prices, which are translating to high monthly payments.”
Battery-electric vehicle sales
Mobility Global expected battery electric vehicle (BEV) sales and market share to cool in the first half of 2026, as both automakers and buyers adjusted to the market after incentive-driven demand. But fuel prices rising since March have pulled some shoppers back toward fuel-efficient options, including EVs.
BEV share of new sales has improved from the first quarter slow down, but gains remain measured. Lack of stronger BEV growth is likely a result of the reality that EV programs continue to be higher-priced vehicles. For October, we expect BEVs to reach slightly above 6% of new-vehicle sales, continuing to build slowly from the July 2026 result.
A few forces appear to be tempering new BEV momentum even with higher fuel prices:
- OEM adjustments (production slowdowns, inventory, strategy) which could be constraining availability.
- EVs continuing to be higher-priced programs, and the lack of “entry-priced” new models.
- Rising used-EV activity, which can satisfy value-focused demand that might otherwise land in new BEVs.
New BEVs rolling out over the second half of 2026 should add additional momentum.
