Tesla rebuilds its lead in the US electric vehicle market

The end of the US tax credit for electric vehicles (EVs) last fall, along with the effective elimination of emissions requirements, substantially slowed EV deliveries. Tesla, however, has bucked that trend.

Rather than faltering alongside its rivals, Mobility Global automotive insights show that the automaker has strengthened its competitive position within the electric vehicle market, outperforming other EV brands on registrations, loyalty and conquest rates since the policy changes took effect.

Tesla pulls ahead in the US after EV incentives end, lifting EV market share

Mobility Global registration trends data provides the clearest evidence of Tesla’s momentum, including how many vehicles were registered in each state. From August 2023 through September 2025, Tesla’s year-over-year percentage change in new retail registrations trailed that of its EV competitors (in aggregate) in all but one month. (See chart below.)

That pattern reversed when the EV market slowed last October, and Tesla’s EV sales held up better than most. Since then, Tesla’s year-over-year change has exceeded that of its competitors every month, and the company enjoyed a year-over-year increase in deliveries in April and May—something its competitors, in aggregate, have yet to achieve since last fall.

Tesla’s competitive advantage is also evident in customer retention. It has outperformed its rivals in brand loyalty for years. After a dip last fall, the company’s brand loyalty consistently remained at least 13 percentage points (PP) above its EV rivals. (See chart below.) In May, Tesla’s lead widened to an impressive 20.1 PP.

Tesla’s loyalty advantage is even more pronounced at the model level. The Model Y, which accounted for 67% of total Tesla retail registrations in May, continues to retain buyers at an industry-leading rate. In May, 46% of return-to-market (RTM) Model Y households acquired another Model Y, the highest model loyalty in the industry and almost four PP ahead of the runner-up Porsche 911. (See chart below.) Among the 395 models with at least one new registration in May, the Model Y ranked first.

Strong Tesla Model Y sales remain central to the brand's success. The industry's leading Tesla Model Y loyalty rate helps explain why the vehicle continues to outperform many electric vehicle competitors even as broader electric vehicle market trends soften.

This level of Tesla brand loyalty has become a meaningful differentiator in today's electric vehicle market. As more electric vehicle competitors fight for a smaller pool of buyers, the brand continues to retain EV households at a higher rate than the rest of the segment.

Although Tesla owners’ loyalty to EVs dipped slightly after the end of the tax credit, the decline was less pronounced than among non-Tesla EV owners and has since rebounded to exceed its May 2025 level. The gap between Tesla owners’ EV loyalty and non-Tesla EV owners’ loyalty is now an impressive 27.2 PP, up from 24.3 PP a year ago. (See chart below.)

Tesla also excels at attracting buyers from competing brands. For years, Tesla’s conquest/defection ratio—incoming conquests divided by outgoing defections—has been greater than 1.0, indicating that it gains more households from other brands than it loses, helping strengthen Tesla EV market share despite growing electric vehicle competition. After a brief dip at the end of 2025, Tesla’s ratio climbed to 2.5 in April/May 2026, its highest level since Q4 2024. In May, Tesla was the only ongoing, non-exotic brand with a conquest/defection ratio of 2.0 or higher. (See chart below.)

Competitive pricing has been a key driver of Tesla’s superior loyalty and conquest performance. In May, Tesla monthly car payments for a Model Y buyer averaged less than key rivals—$70 lower than the next closest competitor and $50 below the segment average. (See chart below.) At a time when affordability remains one of the new vehicle market’s biggest challenges, Tesla’s ability to offer the lowest monthly payment gives it a meaningful competitive advantage.