September U.S. auto sales to remain on cruise control

September 2026 US auto sales are projected to reach approximately 1.32 million units. This would translate to a sales pace of 16.1 million units (seasonally adjusted annual rate: SAAR) which would be slightly below the prior month reading (16.8 million units SAAR). It would also maintain the steady pace of sales realized since March, which saw the SAAR metric average 16.45 million units over the past six months.

The 1.32-million-unit volume projection for September would be up 5% from the year-ago level and bring third quarter 2026 volume to 4.1 million units, down 1% from last year. We project US auto sales volumes to reach 16.1 million units in 2026, an estimated decline of over 1% from the 2025 level of 16.38 million units.

“September auto demand is expected to close the third quarter on a solid note,” said Chris Hopson, principal analyst at Mobility Global. “This would be the seventh consecutive month that the sales result would be at a SAAR pace of 16.0M units or above, the longest stretch in more than five years. Given current headwinds to buying conditions (rising interest rates, still high vehicle prices), sales for the remainder of the year are likely to relax slightly from the current level.”

Battery-electric vehicle sales

We expected BEV sales and market share to cool in the first half of 2026, as both automakers and buyers adjusted to the market after incentive-driven demand. But fuel prices rising since March have pulled some shoppers back toward fuel-efficient options, including EVs.

BEV share of new sales has improved from the first quarter slow down, but gains remain measured. For September, we expect BEVs to reach about 6% of new-vehicle sales, reflecting limited progress.

A few forces appear to be tempering new BEV momentum even with higher fuel prices:
• OEM adjustments (production slowdowns, inventory, strategy) could be constraining availability.
• Used-EV activity rising, which can satisfy value-focused demand that might otherwise land in new BEVs.

New BEVs rolling out over the last quarter of 2026 should add additional momentum. Still, the market is weighing a key uncertainty: how high fuel prices go and how long they stay there. That will matter for how quickly BEV demand can build from here.