September 2026 new vehicle inventory: Volume holds steady while changeover pressure builds

US new vehicle inventory trends have stayed relatively stable throughout 2026, with total advertised inventory through the first 9 months of the year hovering around 2.8 to 2.9 million units. In September 2026, total inventory came in at 2.87 million units, a modest 1.6% increase from August and a 0.8% rise year-over-year.

However, this topline stability masks a significant shift in the composition of dealer lots as the industry enters the final quarter.

The model-year bottleneck

Dealers are currently carrying 2.1 million units of MY26 vehicles, representing about 74% of total new vehicle inventory. Compared to this time last year, when MY 2025 vehicles made up 57% of the market, this suggests a slower model year changeover.

With nearly 2 out of 3 new vehicles on dealer lots still MY2026, Mobility Global expects discounts to grow as we get further into Q4 and the holiday season.

More deals can be found on the remaining 26,995 units of MY2025 inventory listed for sale. While many are fleet and commercial type vehicles, there are also several thousand MY2025 Jeep Grand Cherokees, Jeep Wranglers, Ford Broncos, and Ford Bronco Sports still waiting to be sold.

Powertrain trends in new vehicle inventory

New EV inventory continues to trend downward, sitting at 64,482 units, less than 35% of the peak EV inventory volumes from mid-2025. Conversely, the used EV market is expanding, with79,772 units listed for sale at the end of September, up from 64,000 in June. This growth reflects a steady stream of EV leases returning to market this year, with retailers seeing sales opportunities for consumers looking to save some money at the pump.

Meanwhile, hybrid inventory has remained stable around 340,000 units with Toyota accounting for 4 out of every 10 new hybrids listed for sale. Used hybrid inventory sat at 127,028 at the end of September, the most since 2022.

Price increases are not universal

Automotive pricing trends reveal a widening gap between luxury and non-luxury segments. Average MSRP for a luxury vehicle is now $76,964, an 18.5% increase since September 2022. This significantly outpaces the 13.5% US Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI inflation rate over the same time period.

In contrast, the average non-luxury vehicle MSRP is $50,947, a 9.8% increase from September 2022, which is considerably lower than the 13.5% CPI inflation rate.

Market outlook

Taken together, September's new vehicle inventory data points to a market that looks steady on the surface but is building pressure underneath. Total inventory is essentially flat year over year, yet MY2026 vehicles make up a far larger share of dealer lots than MY2025 models did at this time last year, setting the stage for heavier incentives as the model-year changeover accelerates through Q4.

At the same time, growing used EV and hybrid supply is giving cost-conscious shoppers more options, while luxury pricing continues to outpace inflation and non-luxury pricing tracks more closely with it. For buyers willing to shop year-end deals or consider leftover MY2025 models, the coming months may offer some of the best value of the year.

Looking for more automotive insights? Explore our monthly new vehicle inventory analyses for July 2026 and August 2026 to see how inventory, pricing and EV trends have evolved.